Oil inventories are beginning to fall in some regions as demand outpaces supply constrained by deep production cuts from OPEC leader Saudi Arabia, providing support for prices which are expected to rise in coming months.
JP Morgan analysts said this month that oil inventories - which include crude and fuel products - now play a bigger role in determining oil prices than the U.S. dollar because Western sanctions on Russia have accelerated oil trading in other currencies.
Stock declines have been geographically uneven so far, with inventory falls in the United States and Europe offset by increases in China and Japan. Weekly stocks of diesel, jet fuel and fuel oil in the five regions are also currently below their five-year averages. China accounts for the lion's share of the gains, adding 700,000 bpd since mid-April, which Kayrros co-founder Antoine Halff noted was commercial rather than strategic.
China's diesel inventories also rose sharply over Nov. 2022-Feb. 2023 and have remained at elevated levels since.Crude stocks in the Mideast Gulf and North Africa region have declined by 5 million barrels overall so far this year, according to estimates by Macquarie, although OPEC members in the region have drawn 10 million barrels.
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