Novo Nordisk A/S can capture almost half of the rapidly growing global market for obesity drugs, equating to a sales opportunity worth around $33 billion by 2030, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.
The Danish drugmaker — which is now Europe’s biggest company after the success of its Ozempic and Wegovy injectable drugs — will be a big beneficiary from a shift in the way that obesity and cardiovascular disease are treated, analysts led by Richard Vosser wrote in a note. They doubled their estimate for the overall obesity drug market to $71 billion in sales by 2032, and expect Novo and Eli Lilly & Co. to share the overwhelming majority of that.
Vosser boosted his price target for the end of 2024 by 25% to 1,500 Danish kroner and reiterated his overweight rating, citing Novo’s “superior growth profile through to 2030, together with best-in-sector visibility over this growth.” The analysts also highlighted upcoming catalysts, including detailed trial data that will be presented at the American Heart Association meeting in November. Initial data from that trial, showing that Wegovy reduced the risk of heart attacks and strokes, was released last month and sent Novo shares surging the most in over 20 years.
An improvement in the US supply of Wegovy — something that Novo has been struggling with — will also be positive, JPMorgan said.--With assistance from Henry Ren.
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