Nobel laureate Robert Shiller and technology investor Cathie Wood have big ideas on how to spot trends and bubbles Under30Summit
, deepening the crisis. Today, Shiller thinks economists should pay more attention to history and psychology instead of relying on mathematical theory. “There is a data revolution that's underway,” he said in Detroit. “We have digitized text with improving search engines that allow you to explore what people were thinking in the past.”
Wood invests aggressively in innovation, aiming to identify trends without subscribing to misleading narratives. To do that, “We've got a very rigorous definition of what an innovation platform is,” she said. One element she looks for in promising technologies: every time the production of a given item or service doubles, the cost to produce it consistently declines. As a second criterion, “This innovation must cut across economic sectors, and across the globe.
Today she sees these patterns in five areas: DNA sequencing, collaborative robots, energy storage , artificial intelligence and blockchain technology. In her, her top two holdings are Tesla and Square. She has a $300 million combined bet on the two companies. Over the past three years, the ETF has returned 33%, compared with 13% for the S&P 500.
On the question of a looming recession, both Wood and Shiller dismissed the common narrative that an inverted yield curve—when short-term interest rates rise higher than long-term rates—means a downturn is coming soon. One audience member asked whether the recent spike in Google searches for the word “recession” means we’re headed for one. Shiller answered, “I think that this is an example illustrating how we talk ourselves into a recession.
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