.NOAA's CoralReefWatch has just issued its Four-Month Heat Stress Outlook for the Caribbean. Maroon-shaded areas have a 90% chance of seeing Alert Level 2 heat stress, meaning severe CoralBleaching and significant mortality are likely. More:
Weekly Outlooks, incorporating model runs from Weeks 2-15 and often up to Week 20, were used in deriving the Four-Month Coral Bleaching Outlook.
In a normal year, the Outlook forecasts no potential for bleaching. When the forecasted SST exceeds bleaching thresholds over a long enough period to cause bleaching, the Outlook maps display the bleaching potential. Actual conditions may vary due to model uncertainty, subsequent changes in climatic conditions, extreme localized variability, or weather patterns.
Users are referred to the probabilistic maps for the chance of any particular stress range occurring across the globe over the next four months. Each map displays the percentage of the ensemble members that predicted heat stress within the range specified.
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