Net-zero world could see Canada’s oil output plummet by 2050: modelling
It paints a picture of a dramatically different energy sector, especially if the world is successful in reaching its 2050 climate targets and holding global temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming.
That would prompt a collapse in global oil prices, to as low as US$35 per barrel by 2030 and US$24 per barrel by 2050, it says.The report concludes that as a result of these low prices, Canadian crude oil production would fall to 1.2 million barrels per day by 2050, 76 per cent below 2022 levels.
The regulator also modelled two other scenarios — one in which Canada achieves net-zero by 2050, but large developing countries like China and India move at a slower pace. In that scenario, Canadian oil production would actually rise to reach 6.1 million barrels per day by 2050 — 20 per cent higher than in 2022.Charlebois told reporters the three scenarios laid out are models, not forecasts, and the regulator has not made any predictions about which is most likely to become reality.“It remains to be seen whether it will actually look that way in the real world.
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