Morgan Stanley on Tuesday raised its year-end Brent price forecast to $40 per barrel, citing a faster-than-expected balance in global oil demand and supply as countries ease coronavirus restrictions and major producers cut supply.
“We expect demand to rebound to about 97 million barrels per day by Q4 as economies come out of lockdown - a significant improvement although still down about 4 million bpd year-on-year,” the bank said.
The OPEC and producers including Russia, a group known as OPEC+, agreed last month to cut their combined output by almost 10 million bpd in May-June to support prices at a time when pandemic quarantines have slashed fuel demand. The bank, however, said the recent rebalancing was mostly supply rather than demand-driven with the rise in crude prices compressing refining margins even further and inventories of oil products rising fast relative to crude oil stocks.
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