Better forecasting can boost wind and solar energy.
in a majority of the world.) On the flip side, if forecasts warn of weak winds, utilities plan to procure electricity from other, potentially more expensive, energy sources.
Miscalculations are costly. If less wind energy is available than initially forecast, utilities might have to pay extra high prices to buy electricity on short notice to meet customer demand. And if more wind energy is available than initially forecast, a utility might needlessly purchase more expensive electricity from a coal-fired power plant. The costs associated with those poor weather predictions typically get passed on to customers as higher energy bills.
Thankfully, forecasting has improved with dedicated research. In 2015, the Department of Energy launched a four-year into the atmospheric processes that affect wind power forecasts. That research informed an important weather model from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration that provides hourly forecasts on wind conditions., has been updated a couple times since 2015. Consumers would have saved $384 million between 2015 and 2018 had the most updated version of the model been running the entire time, the new study finds. That shows how valuable it is to keep improving weather forecasts.
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