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Mining bankers are all dressed up with nowhere to go. Now that BHP’s attempt to take over the non-South African parts of rival Anglo American has hit the skids, the question is where the M&A spotlight is next going to fall in a sector newly buzzing with intrigue. The smart money right now seems to be on something involving Canada’s $25 billion Teck Resources, or $72 billion New York-listed Freeport-McMoran.
Freeport, which is in contrast largely held by institutional investors, looks a more promising M&A candidate. CEO Kathleen Quirk, who took the reins this month, needs to find ways to make her equity story more exciting: analysts expect Freeport’s copper production to barely increase in the next five years at 1.3 million tonnes annually, according to estimates polled by Visible Alpha.
This doesn’t mean Teck and Freeport have no hope of being involved in big M&A. That’s because they could use their expensive shares to become acquirers. There are plenty of options. Teck’s $25 billion value gives it nearly the same market capitalization as Antofagasta, while Vale’s base metal business was valued at a similar price when it sold a one-tenth stake to shareholders including Saudi Arabia last year.
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