Mild ‘garden-variety’ recession coming, Cal State Fullerton economists say

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Mild ‘garden-variety’ recession coming, Cal State Fullerton economists say
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Southern California bosses are projected to add 39,000 jobs this year – then cut the same amount next year.

13,000 fewer jobs this year vs. 82,000 added a year in 2021-22. In 2024, expect 26,000 hires. That will help push unemployment to 5.4% in 2024 from an average 4.7% this year.It’s not just inflation creating business challenges. The lack of people available to be hired is also crimping the economy.

“One of the remarkable phenomena of the post-pandemic economy has been the acute shortage of workers, both at the national and local levels,” the report said. “Indeed, despite soaring wages and generous bonuses, there has been little change in the size of the labor force in some Southern California counties over the past 12 months. Los Angeles County has a smaller labor force now than it did a year ago, while Orange County’s labor force rose by 1.1% and that of Ventura County by 0.6%. Inland Empire’s labor force remained virtually unchanged over the past year.

Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at

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