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The weekend's Middle East shock adds another confusing twist to an already complicated global markets picture, but the initial jump in oil prices has been relatively modest so far as investors assess the geopolitical implications.
Saudi officials had reportedly told the White House on Friday they were willing to raise output next year as part of that proposed Israel deal. An increase in Saudi output would have helped to relieve tightness after months of supply cuts from key producers Saudi Arabia and Russia. Small safety bids in gold and U.S. Treasury futures were similarly restrained. U.S. Treasury cash bond markets were closed on Monday for the Columbus Day holiday, even though the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq are open later.
But U.S. dollar more generally was a clear winner - both on the geopolitical tension and the fallout from Friday's blowout U.S. employment report. A sustained oil price rise from here could aggravate the inflation picture the Fed is negotiating - but could also drag on growth too. Fed futures show less than a 50% chance of another rate rise from here.
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