Loonie at Risk of Bigger Drop as Focus Shifts to Bank of Canada

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Loonie at Risk of Bigger Drop as Focus Shifts to Bank of Canada
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It might take a more-hawkish-than-expected message from the BoC on Wednesday to really put a floor under the sliding loonie

With the US currency resurgent in the past month, it could take a more-hawkish-than-expected message from Bank of Canada boss Tiff Macklem on Wednesday to really put a floor under the sliding loonie. That’s even more the case after US central bank chief Jerome Powell used an appearance before Congress Tuesday to hammer home a hawkish message that bolstered the greenback.

The Canadian currency has fallen more than 3% from its February peak and was trading around C$1.375 per dollar on Tuesday. Nevertheless, its decline over the past month has been less dramatic than for commodity-related peers such as the Norwegian krone, the New Zealand dollar and the Australian dollar, which could provide scope for catchup.

Market positioning on the Canadian currency appears to have grown more bearish since January when policy makers in Ottawa said they will likely halt further hikes following a series of tightening moves that’s seen their benchmark climb to 4.5% from its longstanding low of 0.25% in early 2022.

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