The Republican candidate is facing an uphill battle as Newsom seems likely to beat the effort to remove him.
Based on these odds, Elder is almost certain to place first among the replacement candidates, a result which is also borne out in recent polling.will not be enough to land him the governor's job.
The recall election has two parts. First, voters are asked if they want to recall Newsom. If 50 percent of voters choose to remove the governor, he will lose his position and then the replacement ballot comes into play. In the event that Newsom is successfully recalled, the candidate who wins the most votes on the replacement list will become the next governor of California. Newsom cannot run as his own replacement and CaliforniaElder could theoretically become governor if he wins more votes than the next most successful candidate but only if Newsom, a Democrat, is removed from office. There is no requirement for the governor's replacement to win a certain percentage of the vote.
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