JP Morgan Chase & Co.’s plan to include Indian government bonds to its emerging markets bond index next year will draw scrutiny from foreign investors on public finances, particularly on efforts to cut the budget deficit.
While global asset managers play a small role in the Indian market, inflows have been picking up since the government loosened rules in 2020 on the bonds foreigners can own. India’s weighting will reach a maximum 10% in the JPMorgan’s benchmark index, which accounts for $213 billion in assets, once the government bonds are included from June next year.
Global investors will pay attention to efforts by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government to reduce its deficit and debt, said Kotak Securities Ltd. economists led by Suvodeep Rakshit. Since Modi came to power nearly a decade ago, his government has focused on reducing India’s fiscal deficit but the pandemic widened the gap to an unprecedented 9.2% of GDP in the year ending March 2021. The target for the current year to March 2024 stands at 5.9% and the government has pledged to cut down the gap to 4.5% by fiscal 2025-26.
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