China’s decision-making around any potential invasion of Taiwan could have a major effect in Japan, security experts say, as the country becomes the world’s third-largest military spender
Beginning next month, Japan’s military budget will be the largest it has been since the end of the Second World War, when the country adopted an officially pacifist constitution.
Such a possibility was driven home for many Japanese last August, when China staged massive military drills around Taiwan during a visit by then-U.S. house speaker Nancy Pelosi. Five missiles fired as part of those exercises landed in Japanese waters off the island of Yonaguni, the country’s westernmost territory, around 100 kilometres from Taiwan.
Japan’s new National Defence Strategy, published last December, identifies seven “functions and capabilities required to adapt to the new ways of warfare.” These include expanding the country’s long-range missile arsenal and creating an integrated air and missile defence, with the intention to “deter and defeat invading forces over long distances, thereby deterring invasion itself.”
This month, China announced a 7.3-per-cent increase in its annual military budget, to 1.5-trillion yuan – $299-billion – or more than half of what Japan intends to spend between now and 2027. Since 2014, Tokyo has interpreted the constitution as also allowing for “collective self-defence,” a far more controversial stance. This could mean Japan going to war to protect an ally, most likely the U.S., even if it was not immediately threatened. Opposition parties have pushed the government to outline exactly what circumstances would entail this, something officials have refused to do, arguing this would undermine deterrence.
Washington has been trying to line up a strong deterrent to any potential Chinese move, encouraging allies, including Canada, to play a bigger role in maintaining peace and security in the Indo-Pacific. This week saw the U.S., Britain and Australia finalize a deal to sell nuclear-powered subs to Canberra, something Beijing has warned risks sparking an arms race and could sour recently improving ties between Australia and China.
France Dernières Nouvelles, France Actualités
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