President Trump has been quick to declare victory against the coronavirus recession, comparing U.S. economic growth to a “rocket ship” and predicting “GREATNESS, and soon!” Economists are telling a different story
The White House has focused on certain statistics to bolster its election-year narrative, but it rarely acknowledges that widespread recovery and a return to full employment will hinge largely on the country’s ability to contain a virus that has infected about 2.2 million Americans and continues to spread.
But even the most recent numbers released Thursday show that unemployment applications are more than double the highest rate the country had ever seen in a single week before the pandemic. And economists warn that the layoffs taking place now are perhaps the most worrying; they more likely reflect permanent job losses due to companies closing or downsizing rather than temporary furloughs because of the shutdown.
Economists have laid out myriad reasons for continued concern. For one, there’s a limit to how many people can return to their jobs as the country reopens, especially as long as the virus remains an active threat. The leisure and hospitality sector, for example, brought back more than a million workers in May as restaurants reopened their doors, accounting for nearly half of the overall job creation for the month.
Trump has also touted the jump in retail sales in May, as Americans began returning to stores and spending money. But the record-setting 17.7 percent spike from April to May only recouped roughly two-thirds of the losses — and it, too, could hit a plateau if concerns over the virus continue to weigh on consumer confidence.
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