The squad least likely to make the playoffs still has a 42% chance, per FiveThirtyEight:
take dimmer views of the Niners and Seattle Seahawks than FiveThirtyEight and PFF do. In fact, Sagarin doesn’t even rank the NFC West as the best conference this year. Its average divisional rating is 22.51, behind the top dog AFC West .
At this point in the season, any way of ranking NFL team strength will either be leaning heavily on preseason expectations or extrapolating based on less than a quarter of a season’s results. No matter what system or rankings you used, though, the NFC West was expected to be a very strong division, and the results so far have borne that out.
The Cardinals’ surprising 4-0 start has boosted their Elo rating to a third-best 1607, and we give them anof making the playoffs. Despite falling to the Cardinals, the Rams still have a 73 percent chance of qualifying for postseason, and the Seahawks also have better-than-even odds to make it. At 42 percent, the 49ers are the NFC West team least likely to qualify from here on out — but they’ve still got brighter hopes than 14 other NFL teams.
It’s still early in what will be the longest NFL season ever, though, and almost every scenario for these four teams is still on the table. In fact, FiveThirtyEight’s model projects a 5 percent chance that all four teams from the NFL’s Group of Death make it out alive for the playoffs. And on Thursday night, our predictions will get a very valuable data point when the Rams face the Seahawks in the Emerald City.
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