Whit Ayres, the governor’s former pollster, on how to think about GOP primary dynamics right now.
. How do you view the state of the race right now in terms of his vulnerability?
The largest group, somewhere around 60 percent, is “Maybe Trump.” It’s important to understand these folks are people who voted for Trump. They supported him when he was president. They thought he did a lot of good stuff, but they are at least open to other candidates. That doesn’t mean they’re going to vote for them, but they are open to supporting other candidates and they’re looking around at what’s out there.
If he’s for something, they’re against it. But the people who specialize in foreign policy in the Republican Party were pretty appalled. The honest answer is I really don’t have a clue. My totally uninformed speculation is that there would be an initial rally-around effect. I don’t think years-old payments to porn stars are likely to do anything, and if that’s the first indictment out of the gate, it’ll play into Trump’s hands, because he can just say, “Oh, this is just yesterday’s news.
And it’s true, it’s completely different, and DeSantis does not have a team around him that’s been with him. We did his polling in 2018 in the gubernatorial race, and he won’t have anything to do with anybody who was associated with that race — not the general consultant, not the campaign manager, not either one of the media firms, not the polling firm.He won. Yeah, our poll had it 47-47, and it ended up basically as a tie. So the polling doesn’t get a lot better than that.
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