The prediction business is one that swims in the sea of probability. When the sample size is small, it’s important to try to see tomorrow’s headlines today. Here they are fresh off the press.
The Detroit Red Wings’ team defence isn’t going to be able to protect Ville Husso indefinitely. No way the Toronto Maple Leafs will lose three straight and go under .500 at the hands of the slowly drowning Tampa Bay Lightning. The Vancouver Canucks crushed the Edmonton Oilers, who are in distress, but the numbers indicate that the Florida Panthers should roll over Vancouver at home.On paper, the Ottawa Senators checked all the boxes heading into the 2023-24 season.
It would be a mistake to overlook the potential impact Red Wings goaltender Ville Husso could have on Saturday. Last season, he was the worst in the NHL in Goals Saved Above Expected among goaltenders who played 40 or more games. This season, he has been fine, posting a 0.54 GSAx. No doubt that has been aided by a Detroit defence that statistically has been very stingy in the advanced stats, albeit in a small sample size.
Then came the goal drought. Over the past two games, the Maple Leafs have registered two combined goals. It gets worse. As highlighted by the TSN broadcast, the Maple Leafs surrendered 16 rush scoring chances against the Chicago Blackhawks, which is the most rush scoring chances allowed by Toronto in a single game since 2018-19.
Against the Panthers, the Maple Leafs struggled to combat the forecheck, giving Florida too many counterattack chances. Toronto also was the slower team on too many Panthers’ retrievals. That shouldn’t be an issue against the Lightning.
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