Inflation ticked back above the Bank of Canada’s control range in July, but progress on underlying price pressures leaves room for policymakers to pause interest-rate hikes.
The consumer price index rose 3.3 per cent from a year ago, the first reacceleration since April, Statistics Canada reported Tuesday in Ottawa. That was faster than the median estimate of 3 per cent in a Bloomberg survey of economists. On a monthly basis, the index rose 0.6 per cent, double their expectations.
A three-month moving average of the measures that Governor Tiff Macklem has mentioned as key to his team’s thinking fell to an annualized pace of 3.49 per cent, from an upwardly revised 3.91 per cent previously, according to Bloomberg calculations. Macklem and his officials already anticipated consumer price gains would remain near 3 per cent for the next year, saying last month that the next stage in the decline toward the 2 per cent target is “expected to take longer and is more uncertain.”
This is the last of two inflation reports before that decision. The first set of data in June showed inflation slowed to within the bank’s control range for the first time since March 2021, but progress in cooling underlying pressures had essentially stalled. July’s core movements will help alleviate concerns over that setback.
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