The East Asia Summit was envisaged as a forum where such disputes could be at least managed—if not resolved
MEASURED BY THEIR share of the world’s population and of the global economy , it would have been the largest regional trade agreement ever finalised. So there was a sense of disappointment in Bangkok on November 4th when the would-be signatories of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership missed the deadline they had set themselves.
The other 15 countries have apparently reached agreement on a text, and plan to complete the deal next year—with or without India. Le Yucheng, a senior Chinese trade official at the talks, said the 15 were taking an “open attitude”. “Whenever India is ready,” he said, “it’s welcome to get on board.” India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, seems in no hurry to embark.
Although India and China already have free-trade deals with ASEAN, they do not yet have an agreement with each other. India fears that lowering its tariffs on Chinese goods will worsen its yawning trade deficit with the country. It also fears that its dairy farmers will fail to compete with Australia’s and New Zealand’s highly mechanised industries. In its nightmares China will eat its lunch and New Zealand will provide its milk. Mr Modi is also wary of criticism at home.
Quite how much difference RCEP will make, with or without India, is open to question. In Bangkok America’s commerce secretary, Wilbur Ross, called it “not much of an agreement”. This reflects his country’s long-held disdain for the deal. That said, under the administration of Barack Obama American officials contrasted RCEP disparagingly with the Trans-Pacific Partnership that America had negotiated with 11 other countries in Asia and the Americas.
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