So long as Kazakhstan doesn't try moving out of Russia's sphere of influence, status quo is expected.
AP Photo/Alastair Grant
In 2017, Uzbekistan’s Soviet-era leader Islam Karimov died and the torch was passed to a reform-minded Shavkat Mirziyoyev. The last one left was Kazakhstan’s Nursultan Nazarbayev. That changed on Tuesday when he unexpectedly announced his early retirement. His decision to resign hit the price of Kazakh investment-grade bonds, while the London-listed shares of Kazakhstan’s biggest bank, Halyk Bank, fell 5%.
“So long as his successors are not looking for an anti-Russia strategy, things should be okay,” says Arent Thijsen, CEO of Blauwtulp Wealth Management in The Netherlands. Moscow is Kazakhstan’s main trading partner. Blauwtulp is a long-term investor in Kazakhstan and has positions in KAZ Minerals. The stock fell again on Wednesday. “Nazarbayev's retirement doesn’t change our short-term opinion of KAZ. But a surprise retirement like this can make you uncertain about the future.
Nazarbayev oversaw extensive market reforms and had a roughly 80% approval rating in this oil and gas-rich country of 18 million people. The country became somewhat famous after British comedian Sacha Baron Cohen spoofed a make-believe Kazakh journalist in his movie, which seemed to have embarrassed the leadership enough to make rapid pushes towards modernity. Prior to that movie, Kazakhstan wasn’t on anybody’s radar.
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