Evidence could emerge that the Fed has overstepped, from both bonds and stocks.
In Thursday remarks, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that the central bank would probably not need to raise interest rates further if Treasury yields—with are hovering just under 5% for the 10-year T-note—remain high.
Or as Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye writes, the question of whether or not the central bank will raise rates misses the point. “It’s about the Fed being dovish or hawkish and the main takeaway from Powell’s speech was that in this situation, there’s no way the Fed can get dovish.” But as Yardeni Research President Ed Yardeni writes, “According to Powell, that good news is bad news, which is why the bond yield rose yet again…which depressed the stock market. If the bond yield continues to move higher, we will have to reassess our optimistic outlooks for the economy and stock market.”
Or as Rosenberg Research’s Dave Rosenberg puts it: “Bonds are oversold but have been for a while and the situation looks set to get worse over the near term until it gets better.”
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