'Everyone knows it was a mistake to write Trump off so easily in 2016. What they may not know is that he wasn’t just lucky,' writes Ed_Kilgore
of 2024 Republican presidential nomination polls, Trump leads DeSantis two-to-one , with no one else within hailing distance of double digits. Only two published polls show Trump leading by less than 20 points. Calling him doomed to defeat really makes no sense at this point, though the rush to do so is understandable after what he’s put the country through since 2016.
But speaking of 2016, part of the argument for Trump’s vulnerability in a comeback bid is based on the idea that he would have never won a presidential nomination if his many Republican rivals hadn’t, letting the demagogue slither across the finish line without earning any real mandate. There’s no question that the very large field of GOP presidential candidates in 2016 initially discounted him, figuring he’d get bored or burn out or finally say and do something so outrageous that his support would evaporate.
Maybe, but maybe not. It’s not as though Trump marched to the 2016 nomination by piling up delegates against a perpetually divided field of rivals who wouldn’t let each other get a clean shot at the MAGA man.
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