Faced with two bad options—one certain (no fun), the other (becoming ill) worse but only hypothetical—many people will take the risk
America is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual Asian disease that is expected to kill 600 people. Two alternative responses are proposed. Assume that the consequences of the programmes are as follows: if option A is adopted, 200 people will be saved. If B is chosen, there is a one-third probability that 600 people will be saved and a two-thirds probability that none will be.
If you are like most people, you chose A in the first scenario, and D in the second. If you stopped and deliberately did the maths, though, or have read Daniel Kahneman’s “Thinking, Fast and Slow”, you will have noticed that the two scenarios are identical: A and C offer the same outcome, as do B and D.
How can this inform effective communication over covid-19? It may be tempting for governments to stress the negative: “If you go out you may get sick.” No one wants a bad thing—but neither do they want to be stuck at home with no food, toilet paper or fun. Faced with two bad options—one certain , the other worse but only hypothetical—many people will take the risk.
But good framing is not enough. Leaders must also be clear and firm. Denmark, which has imposed a lockdown, is a fine example. “Cancel Easter lunch,” its government told citizens in no uncertain terms. “Postpone family visits. Don’t go sightseeing around the country.” As the, a Swedish news website, noticed, that injunction contrasts starkly with the language in Sweden, which has taken a much softer approach to containing the disease .
France Dernières Nouvelles, France Actualités
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