How pollsters plan to get the 2020 election right by rickjnewman
Will the 2020 presidential polls be as mistaken as they were in 2016? Pollsters certainly hope not, and they’re changing a few things to assure more credible insights this time around.
“Most of the national polls were fine,” Lee Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, explains in the latest episode of the Yahoo Finance Electionomics podcast. “A lot of the problem with the state polls was that they were not in the right states. There was a sense that Hillary Clinton is going to run up the score and let's look at some other places.
Polls also may have underrepresented the influence of less-educated voters who turned out for Trump in large numbers. Many polls have since been adjusted to give more weight to these voters, but Miringoff thinks that may be an insufficient fix. “To me, that’s fighting the last war,” he says. Also needed: Better weighting to account for the impact of rural voters.
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