'It's going to be like an interstate highway in a rush hour in a snowstorm with everyone driving much too fast.'
Astronomer and astrophysicist at the Harvard–Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics.
Take SpaceX's Starlink as an example. According to information that the Elon Musk-owned company submitted to thein December last year, SpaceX's autonomous collision-avoidance system performed 26,037 orbital avoidance maneuvers with its Starlink satellites in the two-year period between Dec. 1, 2020 and Nov. 30, 2022.
"The number [of required avoidance maneuvers] is increasing nonlinearly." Lewis said."By about 2027 or 2028, the Starlink constellation might have made throughout its lifetime a total of a million collision-avoidance maneuvers. And that also corresponds potentially to the earliest time when they reach 350 collision-avoidance maneuvers per satellite [per the five-year lifetime period]. We're talking about potentially hundreds, if not thousands of maneuvers a day.
Hugh Lewis is a Professor of Astronautics at the University of Southampton in the U.K. and a co-director of the Centre of Excellence in In-situ and Remote Intelligent Sensing. He has worked in the fields of space debris and space sustainability for more than 20 years and is the author of the DAMAGE space debris model. Hugh represents the U.K. Space Agency at meetings of the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee where he chairs Working Group 2 .
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