Buckle up, because flights are about to get bumpier. Climate change may be exacerbating air turbulence, like the tumultuous winds that buffeted a recent Hawaiian Airlines flight, sending 11 passengers to the hospital.
published last year in the academic journal Earth’s Future modeled the effects of warming on the creation of “convective environments” that can lead to tornadoes. Researchers found that each degree Celsius of average warming increases the frequency of connective environments by 5% to 20%.
According to the National Transportation Safety Board, between 2009 and 2018, flight crews had no advance warning about 28% of accidents caused by turbulence. Paul Williams, a professor of atmospheric science at the University of Reading in Reading, England, has been studying the effect of climate change on air turbulence since 2013.
“We ran some computer simulations and found that severe turbulence could double or triple in the coming decades,”. He added that the duration of turbulence will also probably increase significantly. “Typically, on a transatlantic flight, you might expect 10 minutes of turbulence,” he said. “I think that in a few decades, this may increase to 20 minutes or to half an hour. The seatbelt sign will be switched on a lot more, unfortunately for passengers.”
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