U.S. job growth likely slowed in August, partly reflecting striking Hollywood actors and the bankruptcy of a major trucking company, but the unemployment rate probably held at more than 50-year lows as labor market conditions remain tight. There is a tendency for the initial nonfarm payrolls count to be weaker in August. As such, economists are cautioning against reading too much into any sharp deceleration in job gains when the Labor Department's publishes its closely watched employment report on Friday.
FILE PHOTO: An employee hiring sign with a QR code is seen in a window of a business in ArlingtonWASHINGTON - U.S. job growth likely slowed in August, partly reflecting striking Hollywood actors and the bankruptcy of a major trucking company, but the unemployment rate probably held at more than 50-year lows as labor market conditions remain tight.
"There's going to be noise, but look at the trend, which is sort of a gentle slope downwards, it's not like anything really abrupt," said Brian Bethune, an economics professor at Boston College. "We're in a transition phase, so we have to be careful we don't throw the baby with the bath water." Striking workers are not counted as employed. Yellow Corp trucking filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in early August, leaving about 30,000 workers unemployed. These two factors will impose a one-time drag on employment. August payrolls also have a tendency to initially print weaker relative to the consensus estimate and recent trend before being revised higher later.
Economists say employers will cut hours for workers before resorting to mass layoffs. The average workweek is at three-year lows, with most industries back to pre-pandemic workweeks.
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