The shape of the Treasury yield curve is flashing the biggest recession warning in nearly 42 years, but some strategists say a recession may not be coming soon.
The shape of the Treasury yield curve may be flashing the biggest recession warning in nearly 42 years, but some strategists say it may actually be reflecting high inflation, rather than a pending economic downturn. An inverted yield curve is considered a forewarning for recession, and the already-inverted yield curve stretched even wider this week to its most inverted level since 1981.
"Yes by historical standards with this kind of inversion, it is fair to expect recession further down the line, but we're not saying it's a given that this curve means a recession is coming over quarters to come because both the U.S. economy and the consumer are in much better shape coming into a potential slowdown than was anticipated," Skiba said.
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