'One suspects that a war occurring thousands of miles away is far less significant to Xi’s calculus than the PLA’s ability actually to carry out a Taiwan invasion in the first place. In fact, Ukraine may not even be on the list.' -DanDePetris
could have ordered a strike on Taiwan in two to three years. But, she said,"I think that time table has been pushed back." She cited the Russian military's poor performance in Ukraine as a reason why Xi may be having second thoughts about starting his own war.Anything is possible.
The Russian army didn’t have to worry about rolling over the Ukrainian border with their tanks and armored personnel carriers; in fact, Russian troops made rapid gains across Ukrainian territory during the first few days of the invasion . The PLA wouldn’t have the luxury of simply stepping over a border and making a beeline toward the capital.
None of this even begins to account for the nonmilitary responses, such as financial sanctions and comprehensive export controls, the U.S., Europe, Japan, South Korea, and possibly Southeast Asia would enact in retaliation for an invasion. Xi could kiss his"rejuvenation" campaign goodbye . Did Russia’s headaches in Ukraine serve as a come-to-Jesus moment for Xi? Maybe. But one suspects that a war occurring thousands of miles away is far less significant to Xi’s calculus than the PLA’s ability actually to carry out a Taiwan invasion in the first place. In fact, Ukraine may not even be on the list. Beltway Confidential blog. His opinions are his own
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