Four new MPs are set to be elected to the House of Commons Monday in a handful of byelections that political watchers say could expose rifts within the Conservative party and bring a new Liberal cabinet hopeful into the fold.
The Liberals are expected to hold onto seats in Winnipeg and Montreal, said Philippe J. Fournier, the polling analyst behind the 338Canada polling aggregator website.
Party infighting has led to "the nastiest campaign that we've ever seen in our riding," said Dave MacKenzie, who announced he was stepping down from the seat in December.MacKenzie won in the 2021 federal election with nearly 47 per cent of the vote, a 27-point margin over the Liberal candidate. He alleged that Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and House Leader Andrew Scheer meddled in their local association by influencing the nomination process and taking away grassroots power.
Bernier has said he wants to give his party a more prominent voice and prove that Conservatives are not strong enough on "cultural battles" that supporters care about. He has campaigned against transgender-inclusive policies and vowed to reopen the abortion debate. Fournier said the Tories' recent promises to "never go" to the World Economic Forum — an international organization that has become a the source of rampant conspiracy theories online — show they are trying to woo back voters who chose the People's Party of Canada last time.
"That's going to energize people in the Conservative party who are afraid that they are losing votes on the right," she said.
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What's at stake in the four federal byelections on Monday, and what to expectObservers are watching if Maxime Bernier makes some gains in Portage\u002DLisgar or if the Conservatives face an uphill battle to keep Oxford.
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