The 2-year, 10-year yield spread, thought by many analysts to be screaming "recession" over the past year, may be consistent with a soft-landing...
The U.S. Treasury market, thought by many analysts to be screaming “recession” for much of the past year, may be sending a surprising signal that’s more consistent with the soft-landing scenario articulated by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday.Though the 2-year yield BX:TMUBMUSD02Y continues to trade a full percentage point above its 10-year counterpart BX:TMUBMUSD10Y, leaving their spread deeply below zero, this so-called inversion can be interpreted in more than just one way.
The 2s/10s spread, one of more than 40 negative spreads in the Treasury market, teetered around minus 100 basis points on Wednesday despite a spate of robust U.S. economic data published on Tuesday. It’s remained consistently negative since last July, even though fears of an economic downturn have recently moderated and a recession has yet to be officially declared by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Following Powell’s remarks at a central-bank forum in Sintra, Portugal, U.S. stocks DJIA SPX COMP struggled for upward momentum in afternoon trading. Meanwhile, two- through 30-year Treasury yields were slightly lower, though held relatively steady. Wall Street investors have been grappling with how the last leg of U.S. inflation could play out, and some of the financial market’s best inflation traders are counting on further easing in price gains in the months ahead.
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