While DisneyPlus' 60 million to 90 million forecast by 2024 now seems in easy reach, some Wall Street analysts say the inclusion of the India subscribers may cause 'misunderstanding'
Disney+ original series 'The Mandalorian' has been the flagship title since the November launch of the service.
"With Disney+ set to launch imminently in some of the major Asia Pacific markets, and soon thereafter across other international markets in Eastern Europe and Latin America, we see the nascent service tracking well ahead of Disney's initial target of 60 million to 90 million subscribers by the end of the fifth year," CFRA Research analyst Tuna Amobi wrote in a report.
Bernstein analyst Todd Juenger said the figures for India, where Disney+ became available on Disney's streaming platform Hotstar, cause "much of the potential for misunderstanding." He said he had forecast Disney+ to reach 40 million subscribers by the end of Disney's fiscal year in September, but hadn't included Indian subscribers in that estimate and hadn't expected "many" additions in the second and third calendar year quarters.
What impact has the coronavirus pandemic had? "What is interesting is that many 'intenders' will have jumped in earlier than anticipated due to the lockdown, but during this period behavior will become established," Futuresource Consulting analyst David Sidebottom says. "Yet new subscriber acquisition will be more challenging in the second half of 2020.
Concluded Brougthon: "Disney has already indicated it will begin to push certain movie releases onto Disney+ to help with the content supply issue. However, if key series such asare delayed sufficiently, impacting the fourth-quarter slate substantially, we would expect elevated churn in the end-of-year period, with a negative impact on net additions relative to current projections."
Futuresource estimates that approximately 30 million of the 50 million Disney+ subscribers are in the U.S., while the U.K. subscriber mark is "now likely to be approaching 4 million" and India accounts for the 8 million detailed by Disney. Juenger on Thursday similarly estimated about 12 million subs in the U.K. and Western Europe.
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