Goldman Sachs sees below-consensus July jobs report
Following a largely anticipated statement from the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday, the market focus has now shifted to the upcoming employment report due on Friday. Economists and analysts largely expect the report to provide signs that economic conditions are conducive to a rate cut in September.
Hurricane Beryl, which caused power outages for over 2 million Texans, significantly impacted employment in the state. Goldman noted its past analyses have shown that major hurricanes typically reduce payroll growth by around 25,000 on average, although the effects vary depending on the severity and timing of the storm.
The Wall Street firm pointed out two-sided risks to this forecast. Continued, though slowing, above-trend immigration could increase the unemployment rate, while a catch-up of household employment towards nonfarm payrolls, after a period of underperformance, could decrease it.
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