Goldman Sachs shares the likelihood of a recession in the next 12 months:
Goldman Sachs on Thursday said it sees a higher probability of the U.S. facing a recession in the next 12 months, following the recent collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and concerns about its impact on the broader banking sector.... [+]Goldman analysts are now forecasting a 35% chance of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months—up from their earlier prediction of 25%.
In its research note, the investment bank said its revised estimate is in response to “increased near-term uncertainty around the economic effects of the stress on small banks.”its forecast from 35% to 25% and said that a recession in the U.S. was unlikely due to “persistent strength in the labor market and early signs of improvement in business surveys.”that Goldman’s new estimate is still significantly lower than the median forecast of 60% among economists surveyed by the outlet.
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