GBP/USD edges higher to 50-day SMA around 1.2755 area, lacks bullish conviction – by hareshmenghani GBPUSD Fed EconomicHealth BOE Currencies
currently flirt with the 50-day Simple Moving Average , just above mid-1.2700s, and draw support from a mildly softer tone surrounding the US Dollar .
In fact, the USD Index , which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, retreats further from a one-month peak retested on Tuesday. The overnight dovish remarks by PhiladelphiaPresident Patrick Harker, saying that they will probably start lowering the policy rate sometime next year, leads to a modest downtick in the US Treasury bond yields and undermines the buck.
The expectations were lifted by the closely-watched US monthly jobs report released last Friday, which pointed to the continued tightness in the labour market and raised the odds of a soft landing for the economy. Moreover, Fed Governor Michele Bowman said on Monday that additional interest rate hikes will likely be needed to lower inflation to the central bank's 2% target.
In fact, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research said that there was a 60% risk of the government going to the polls during a recession. In its quarterly update, the NIESR added that it would take until the third quarter of 2024 for UK output to return to its pre-pandemic peak. This comes after a report from the British Retail Consortium showed on Tuesday that UK Retail Sales in July registered its weakest year-on-year growth since August 2022.
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