After a second consecutive year in which the word “unprecedented” did more than its fair share of narrative heavy lifting, economists are looking ahead to 2022
Despite bouts of volatility, 2021 was a gangbusters year for stocks, with equities notching record highs regularly. With the gains all but in the rearview mirror, however, market professionals predict a return to sobriety next year.A big open question is whether, when and to what extent the services sector — which comprises a sizable slice of economic output and jobs — will be able to rebound. “If the services sector has come back ...
Cunnison pushed back against the assumption that a run-up in asset prices would necessarily trigger a hard landing. “This is not a dichotomous outcome,” he said. “You can grow into high prices. Earnings can continue to grow solidly into the current prices.” “What we’re watching for is the relative performance between the consumer discretionary sector and the consumer staples sector,” said David Wagner, a portfolio manager and analyst at Aptus Capital Advisors. A reduction in nonessential spending could mean high prices start to pinch consumer spending, which could portend coming economic pain that could spill over into other categories of spending, squeezing earnings and triggering a downturn on Wall Street.
“I would argue what we’re seeing right now with inflation is a combination of two things. It’s a perfect storm,” said Brad McMillan, the chief investment officer for Commonwealth Financial Network. High demand for goods triggered by service-sector shutdowns and by supportive monetary and fiscal policy that was rolled out last year was on a collision course with a global supply chain that had effectively had sand poured into its gears.
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