Russian President Vladimir Putin could lose his grip on power within months, according to a prominent international relations theorist and a top analyst of Russia's security networks.
“I would not be at all surprised if that regime comes tumbling down, you know, in the next few months,” Stanford University’s Francis Fukuyama said Wednesday at the Aspen Security Forum.If the end of Putin’s history proves to be at hand, it may serve as a cautionary tale of the incompetence that autocratic rule can produce in the absence of a robust debate, he suggested.
Prigozhin abandoned his dramatic march on Moscow amid behind-the-scenes negotiations and a perhaps-unexpected response from Putin and the FSB, which declared his uprising to be an “armed mutiny” despite his statement that he would not challenge “presidential power” or the internal security services.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko took credit for brokering a deal to avoid a major struggle for control of the capital, and Putin subsequently announced that Prigozhin and Wagner Group fighters would be permitted to leave the country for Belarus. The Wagner Group boss, once known as “Putin’s chef” due to restaurant and catering businesses before the launch of his paramilitary career, emerged this week with a new video showcasing their new positions in Belarus.
That promise throws “domestic politics in Russia [into] chaos,” according to Grozev, who interpreted it as a sign that Prigozhin will fortify Lukashenko’s regime against the creeping annexation that Putin has appeared to pursue in recent years.
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