Forecasting Aaron Nola's Free-Agent Payday as Contract Talks With Phillies Break Off

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Forecasting Aaron Nola's Free-Agent Payday as Contract Talks With Phillies Break Off
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⚾ What might Phillies' ace Aaron Nola get paid on the free agent market? NBCSPhilly

If you're Nola, the benefit of doing a deal now would be to avoid the worst-case scenario of suffering a significant injury during the season that affects the next payday. But obviously, the sides did not get close enough financially during their conversations in spring training. Nola will apparently reach free agency, where he and Julio Urias are set to be the top two starting pitchers available.

Nola's not just OK, he's not just pretty good, he's one of the top starting pitchers in baseball. Barring a disastrous year, he will be valued as such on the free-agent market. That can also be construed negatively when negotiating with a 30-year-old pitcher. One team, one front office might fall in love with the idea of signing a workhorse who limits baserunners and misses bats but never misses starts. Another might look at those 896⅓ innings over the last five years -- which includes a pandemic-shortened season -- more cautiously with regard to the future.

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