Sticky inflation and a stuttering economy blur the outlook
For the first time in over a year, traders are struggling to gauge whether the European Central Bank will raise interest rates at its next meeting, with the outlook blurred by still sticky inflation and a stuttering economy.
Danske Bank chief analyst Piet Christiansen said traders’ indecisiveness reflected “the battle between the growth and inflation outlooks”. Indeed, it was last week’s forward-looking PMI activity data that pushed investors to price in a pause. Lending growth to companies slowed further in July, adding to mounting evidence that the ECB’s sharply higher interest rates are curbing credit creation and growth.
Euro zone government bonds have whipsawed in recent days amid U.S. and European data releases but were less hit by a selloff raising U.S. Treasury yields overall in August as investors expect a weaker economy than across the Atlantic.
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