Fed: Year-end view for policy rate rises again as recession risks remain – Reuters Poll By anilpanchal7 Fed SentimentPoll InterestRate Growth Inflation
higher by the end of this year than anticipated just a month ago, keeping alive already-significant risks of a recession,” said the latest Reuters poll of economists, published during Friday’s Asian session.The May 12-18 Reuters poll showed a near-unanimous set of forecasts for a 50-basis-point hike in the fed funds rate, currently set at 0.75%-1.00%, at the June policy meeting following a similar move earlier this month. One forecaster anticipated a hike of 75 basis points.
That would bring it above the "neutral" level that neither stimulates nor restricts activity, estimated at around 2.4%. Meanwhile the poll showed a median 40% probability of a U.S. recession over the next two years, with a one-in-four chance of that happening in the coming year. Those probabilities were steady compared with the last survey.
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