The Federal Reserve will leave its benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged at the end of its Sept. 19-20 policy meeting and probably wait until the April-June period of 2024 or later before cutting it, according to economists in a Reuters poll. Fed Chair Jerome Powell underscored the 'higher-for-longer' mantra for rates in a speech at the annual Jackson Hole central banking symposium in August and maintained another rate hike might still be needed to bring inflation down to the 2% target. But other members of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), including some of the more hawkish ones, have raised the possibility of holding off on another rate hike to allow more time to gauge the impact of the cumulative 525 basis points of tightening delivered by the Fed since March 2022.
FILE PHOTO: Federal Reserve Board Building in WashingtonBENGALURU - The Federal Reserve will leave its benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged at the end of its Sept. 19-20 policy meeting and probably wait until the April-June period of 2024 or later before cutting it, according to economists in a Reuters poll.
More than 95% of economists, 94 of 97, in the Sept. 7-12 Reuters poll predicted the U.S. central bank would hold the federal funds rate in the current 5.25%-5.50% range next week, in line with market expectations. "While there has been meaningful progress to date on inflation ... the Fed will not be able to take this for granted."
House prices and rents were also expected to remain elevated now that a relatively brief U.S. housing market correction appears to be over, according to a separate Reuters poll. "Tight labor and housing markets present upside risk to inflation ... That means that absent a recession, policymakers are likely to keep policy rates on hold well into 2024," said Andrew Hollenhorst, chief U.S. economist at Citi.
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