The U.S. Federal Reserve will wait until September to cut its key interest rate, according to a majority of 100 economists polled by Reuters, with half...
BENGALURU - The U.S. Federal Reserve will wait until September to cut its key interest rate, according to a majority of 100 economists polled by Reuters, with half saying there will be only two cuts this year and only about a third forecasting more.
While Reuters polls have consistently forecast fewer Fed rate cuts than markets, both have now come into line in the latest survey following last week's inflation report, blowout retail sales data and more hawkish remarks from Powell. The outlook for the various inflation measures - the consumer price index , CPI excluding food and energy, or core CPI, PCE and core PCE - were broadly upgraded from last month in the latest Reuters survey. None of these measures of inflation were expected to reach 2% until at least 2026.
A 60% majority of economists who replied to an additional question, 36 of 60, said the chances were high or very high the Fed would hold rates steady for the remainder of this year. The rest said the probability was low or very low. "We have delayed our first cut, but also see a rising probability stubborn inflation will shift the question from 'when' to 'whether'," he said.
Federal Reserve Rate Cuts Inflation Target
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