By Howard Schneider WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve officials hoping for evidence of a clear decline in inflation and a slowing economy got some ...
Jagmeet Singh on housing, hate and politics | SaltWireWASHINGTON - Federal Reserve officials hoping for evidence of a clear decline in inflation and a slowing economy got some of each from data since their last meeting, but likely not enough of either to downplay the possible need for further rate increases later this year.
Month-to-month inflation numbers"will inevitably hop around," wrote Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Economist Ian Shepherdson, who sees underlying consumer inflation nevertheless slowing to a"benign" level of below 3% by early next year. Investors are largely betting against any further increases, though Fed Chair Jerome Powell has emphasized the bias will remain in favor of tighter monetary policy, kept tight for longer, until it is clear inflation is on a sustained path back to the Fed's 2% target.
Much of the information has pointed towards a slowing-but-still-growing economy with easing price pressures - the"soft landing" that policymakers have hoped to engineer.The pace of job and wage growth has eased, and other labor market measures, such as the rate at which workers are quitting jobs, the rate of job openings, and the number of unemployed people per open job, have edged towards the levels seen before the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the economy.
Overall bank credit has been falling on a year-over-year basis since mid-July, evidence of financial firms tightening access either through higher rates or stricter standards. But U.S. gross domestic product last quarter grew faster than that, at a 2.1% annual rate, and economists at Goldman Sachs see that pace accelerating to more than 3% in the current third quarter.
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