Falling for the forecasting fallacy will cost investors in the long run via financialpost
Not only do overlooked factors reappear unexpectedly, but new ones emerge for which there’s no historical context, such as Brexit, COVID and ChatGPT.
You get the picture. The reasoning behind a market forecast can be quickly overwhelmed by something that wasn’t contemplated or even known. The Financial Times’ Robert Armstrong said it well: “You try to understand markets as best you can, but you are surprised every day. Any intelligent and conscientious person who spends time in markets is humbled by how complex they are and how unpredictable they are.”Most commentators and strategists use economic data as a starting point for their market calls.
Listening to a big thinker justify their market call can be intoxicating. You want to believe they have a crystal ball, and the media can usually oblige by finding someone who got the call right .
France Dernières Nouvelles, France Actualités
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