Ireland, the Netherlands and Belgium are most exposed
NEARLY 3,400 lorries are ferried between Rotterdam’s port and Britain every day. They roll on and off the boats, carrying much of the 54m tonnes of goods that are traded between the Netherlands and Britain each year. The precise form of Brexit is still being wrangled over in Westminster. But unless Britain decides to stay in the EU’s single market and customs union trade will become less seamless.
The countries with the closest trading ties with Britain include Belgium, Ireland and the Netherlands. According to the IMF, Ireland’s exports of goods and services to Britain amounted to 15% of GDP in 2014-16, and those in Belgium and the Netherlands nearly 10%. All three also rely relatively heavily on imports from Britain.
Irish and Dutch financial firms have relatively high exposures to British borrowers. Luxembourg also has close investment and banking links, according to analysis by S&P Global, a credit-ratings agency. But that might partly reflect the fact that some British firms register there for tax purposes. The IMF reckons that the long-term impact of Brexit on the EU27 as a whole would be modest, provided a deal is struck. But some countries might still suffer. If Britain left the single market and instead signed a free-trade deal with the EU, the fund reckons output in Ireland would eventually fall by 2.5%, and that in Belgium and the Netherlands by 0.5-0.7%. In the event of no deal, the losses would nearly double.
France Dernières Nouvelles, France Actualités
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