This morning’s IFO data confirm what the PMIs told us – expectations are down, FX strategist Kit Juckes at Societe Generale notes.
Euro is unlikely to get back to 1.08 “Whether the French elections are a driver of the increased uncertainty and caution, or not, is hard to tell, but either way the lift the Euro was getting from positive economic surprises, is melting away.” “Meanwhile, a regression of EUR/USD against the OAT/Bund yield differential suggests that EUR/USD ought to be heading to parity.
That it isn’t, may tell us a market which is already long USD in a multitude of ways, and has bought into US exceptionalism hook, line and sinker, hasn’t got a great many more euros to sell.” “However, just as I might scratch an itch, even though I know it’s futile, I continue to draw these charts because they make me worry! At the very least, the topside for EUR/USD is very limited and while it has a bit of a Monday morning bid today, I doubt we’ll get back to EUR/USD 1.08, let alone higher.
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