EUR/GBP underwent a strong rally in late July and early August.
EUR/GBP’s short-term trend is in doubt. The pair continues declining after the August 8 high, however, the move is shallow. There is a risk the prior uptrend could still resume, handing control back to bulls. The rally eventually peaked on August 8 at 0.8625 and started moving lower. The pair formed a falling channel which reached a new low of around 0.8507 on Monday. This was also the midpoint of the prior move – or the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level of the rally from the July 17 low.
However, the rally from the July 17 low was quite a bit steeper than the falling channel, indicating bullish conviction has been stronger than bearish conviction. If so, then this might mean that the decline since the August 8 high is in fact merely a correction of the previous rally, and not a new short-term downtrend. If so, the climate still favors longs over shorts. Either interpretation is valid so the direction of the short-term trend remains doubtful.
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