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Former President Donald Trump already has the GOP nomination for president this year locked up, but he faces a key test of his intra-GOP strength as his pick for U.S. Senate in Ohio, businessman and political outsider Bernie Moreno, faces off against two far more establishment GOP candidates in state Sen. Matt Dolan and Secretary of State Frank LaRose.
Moreno has been fighting off vicious media attacks from the Associated Press in the final days of the campaign, and Trump stumped for him on Saturday with a massive rally in Dayton, Ohio. Whoever wins this race could determine a lot about the future of the GOP, and where things go from here. Out in California, too, voters will vote in a special election to choose who will succeed former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in his old Bakersfield-area House seat. Other states, including Florida, have presidential primaries on Tuesday but since the GOP and Democrat primaries have been decided — as Trump and Biden both have locked down the majority of delegates ahead of their respective conventions this summer — these are essentially perfunctory exercises.
I don't have to guess, but if I did I'd think that the Cincinnati area matters most tonight. Dolan needs it to act like the other suburbs and be favorable to him. If Moreno transfers Vance's strength there, Dolan's path becomes very tight.Also, the Cincinnati area seems to have a higher ratio of E-Day to early votes than most of the rest of the state, so Dolan will need to hold up well there with today's votes too.
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