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Masstown farmer launches pumpkins over a kilometre for charity | SaltWireLONDON - The European Central Bank's rate hiking cycle is over, according to all 85 economists polled by Reuters, but it won't be until at least July 2024 before it begins easing as the battle against elevated inflation rattles on.
The median forecast and 58% majority view among economists, 48 of 83, showed it would be in the third quarter of next year, or later, and that the deposit rate would be at 3.50% by end-September. "Our model suggests a rate cut may come earlier but we would need to see more subdued data than is currently forecast so I think a cut in September 2024 is quite a balanced view," said Kristian Toedtmann at DekaBank.
"Recent activity and inflation data have been weaker than expected, but this won't stop Christine Lagarde from sticking firmly to the 'higher-for-longer' narrative," noted Jack Allen-Reynolds at Capital Economics. The downtrend is expected to continue, but the poll concluded it wouldn't be until Q3 2025 at least before inflation reaches target. It was expected to average 5.6% this year, 2.7% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025.
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